The Supply Chain Is Improving, Flexport Data Shows. Will It Be Enough?

Inflation surged — in part — thanks to a broken supply chain and skyrocketing shipping costs. Now that things are getting better, can we get back to normal?

In May 2021, a shipping source told me to expect inflation. His cost to ship containers from China to the U.S. had jumped from $2,000 pre-pandemic to $20,000. So companies selling imported goods — from clothing to food — would soon pass that 10X increase to us. He planned to do his holiday shopping early.

He nailed it. Inflation seemed like a faraway fear at the time. (And I mistakenly buried the inflation warning in a story about Amazon sellers’ increased costs.) But what the shipping industry saw quickly translated into broader pain. Inflation reached 8.6% this May. The Federal Reserve’s rate raises to restrain it guided the S&P 500 into a bear market. And now, to restore price stability, the Fed appears ready to induce a recession.

I was, therefore, thrilled when the same shipping source told me his $20,000 import costs had recently dropped to $8,000. As long as inflation persists, our economy will be unstable. And so, with this leading indicator heading back toward normal, it seemed like we might too. Possibly, at…